Predictions

A prediction is a forecast that a capacity or quota signal will cross a limit within a horizon, shown with an uncertainty band. It does not assert that an incident exists; it gives the team time to act before a limit is reached.

How it works#

Forecasts#

MonitOps projects a signal forward, for example the share of a provider's API limit that remains, from its burn rate. The forecast has a horizon, the period it looks ahead, and an uncertainty band around the projected value. The time at which the projection crosses the limit is the predicted breach time.

Predicted-breach alert#

When the forecast crosses a limit within its horizon, MonitOps raises a predicted-breach alert before the limit is hit. The alert shows how long remains and the severity it would have if the limit were breached now. Because the severity is only what it would be, the alert carries no severity badge, and incident correlation does not treat it as one of the current failures.

Prediction episodes and revisions#

A prediction is an episode. As new data arrives, the forecast is revised, and each revision is kept, so the history shows what MonitOps expected and when.

Outcomes and accuracy#

Outcomes are recorded against the forecast, including the moment a limit is actually breached. An accuracy report compares forecasts with their outcomes, so the team can judge how far to rely on them.

Projection#

A projection answers "if volume grows by X, when does limit Y breach". It runs on the same forecaster. There is no cost data, so projections give times, not savings estimates.

What you see in the console#

Forecasts appear on the metric chart as a dashed overlay with the uncertainty band, crossing the threshold rule. In the sample estate, a provider limit chart shows the breach crossing and an alert row reading Breach in 3 h 40 m · Would be major.

In alert lists, the Predicted badge replaces the severity badge, and the would-be severity is plain text beside it. When the limit is actually breached, the breach is recorded against the forecast it followed.

Limits and defaults#

• Forecasts are produced for capacity and quota signals, not for every signal.
• Every forecast shows its band and horizon; a point estimate alone is not shown.
• A prediction is not counted in the number of firing alerts.

Related#

• Severity and priority
• Baselines
• Signal catalogue
• Incidents and correlation