PredictionLimits seen before they are reachedWorked example · sms-gateway quota

See limits before you hit them.

Forecasts project capacity and quota usage forward with an explicit uncertainty band, and raise a predicted-breach alert while there is still time to act.

Signals

Capacity and quota signals are forecast.

Forecasts are produced for capacity and quota signals, not for every signal. The signal catalogue lists the limit signal, such as limit_remaining_pct, with one series for each limit.

Signal	Kind	Entity	Data from
limit_remaining_pct	state	System, one series per limit	The provider's limit report

Scope: Forecasts are produced for capacity and quota signals, not for every signal.
Series: A limit signal names the limit as a dimension, which gives one series for each limit.
Environments: Series are never aggregated across environments.

Fig. 1 — The limit signal of the catalogue, one series per limit. Forecasts are produced for capacity and quota signals only.

Horizon and band

A forecast carries a horizon and an uncertainty band.

MonitOps projects a signal forward from its burn rate. The forecast has a horizon, the period it looks ahead, and an uncertainty band around the projected value. The time at which the projection crosses the limit is the predicted breach time.

API usage

Forecast with uncertainty band

API usageForecastUncertainty bandAPI limit

Projection: MonitOps projects a signal forward from its burn rate, for example the share of a provider's API limit that remains.
Horizon: The period the forecast looks ahead.
Band: The uncertainty around the projected value. Every forecast shows its band and horizon; a point estimate alone is not shown.
Breach time: The time at which the projection crosses the limit.

Fig. 2 — sms-gateway API usage. The dashed forecast runs forward from now with its uncertainty band and crosses the limit.

Predicted-breach alert

A predicted breach is an alert about the future.

When the forecast crosses a limit within its horizon, MonitOps raises a predicted-breach alert before the limit is hit. The alert shows how long remains and the severity it would have if the limit were breached now.

Alerts

Predictedsms-gateway

Breach in 3 h 40 m · Would be majorNot firing. No severity until the limit is reached; it does not count toward open alerts.

Badge: The Predicted badge replaces the severity badge. The severity it would have if the limit were breached now is plain text beside it.
Counting: Not counted in the number of firing alerts.
Grouping: Incident correlation does not treat it as one of the current failures.

Fig. 3 — The alert is raised before the limit is hit. It is not firing, and the severity it would have is plain text.

Episodes and revisions

Predictions have episodes and revisions.

A prediction is an episode. As new data arrives, the forecast is revised, and each revision is kept, so the history shows what MonitOps expected and when.

Opened
The forecast crosses a limit within its horizon, and MonitOps raises the predicted-breach alert.
Revised
New data arrives and the forecast is revised. Each revision is kept, so the history shows what MonitOps expected and when.
Outcome
The outcome is recorded against the forecast, including the moment a limit is actually breached.

Fig. 4 — One prediction episode. Revisions are kept in order, so the history shows what MonitOps expected and when.

Outcomes

Outcomes are recorded against the forecast.

Outcomes are recorded against the forecast, including the moment a limit is actually breached. An accuracy report compares forecasts with their outcomes, so the team can judge how far to rely on them.

Record	What it holds
Limit breached	The moment of the breach is recorded against the forecast it followed.
Accuracy report	Compares forecasts with their outcomes, so the team can judge how far to rely on them.

Fig. 5 — Outcomes recorded against the forecast. The accuracy report is how a team judges how far to rely on forecasts.

Projection

Ask what happens if volume grows.

A projection answers “if volume grows by X, when does limit Y breach”. It runs on the same forecaster. There is no cost data, so projections give times, not savings estimates.

Question: If volume grows by X, when does limit Y breach?
Answer: A time, produced by the same forecaster that produces the forecasts.
Not included: There is no cost data, so projections give times, not savings estimates.

Fig. 6 — A projection asks what happens if volume grows. It runs on the same forecaster and answers with a time.

Act in time

Act while there is still time.

A predicted-breach alert is raised while there is still time to act. The documentation covers each part of a prediction in full.

Read the documentation

Continue on the site

Fig. 7 — Where to read next.

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